The calls that defined the cycle.

Identified the Bitcoin cycle low amid peak bearish sentiment when most analysts expected further downside. Called the start of the next bull market when BTC was trading near $20,000. Published in CoinDesk — projected a rally to $63k by 2024 halving, driven by mining reward cycle analysis.

Projected a $125,000 Bitcoin cycle top following the breakout to a new 12-month high — two years before the target was reached. Published in CoinDesk. Called at a time when consensus targets were still in the $40–60k range. The projection was accurate to within 2% of the actual cycle peak.

Identified the start of a structural bear market as on-chain momentum weakened and key regime indicators broke down. Published in Yahoo Finance. Clients advised to reduce exposure before the drawdown accelerated. Called when BTC was near cycle highs, ahead of a significant correction.

Identified Bitdeer as a rare opportunity after its market cap collapsed 70% to $300 million by the six-month post-IPO lockup — even as Bitcoin was rallying. Our regression model flagged deep undervaluation. The setup: a $4B SPAC boom valuation collapsed to $300M, creating a structural dislocation that had nothing to do with fundamentals.

Bitdeer flashed deep undervaluation on our relative regression analysis at $7.60, precisely as our Bitcoin trend model turned bullish. The alignment of valuation signal and directional catalyst created a high-conviction setup. Within three weeks, the stock surged to $14.18 — an 87% gain at the point of rotation.

Called the rotation out of Bitdeer at $14.18 and into Coinbase, which our regression model showed was trading 45% below fair value. The key catalyst: pending S&P 500 inclusion announced May 12, implying ~$9B of forced buying from passive index funds and ~$7B from active managers — equal to 31% of Coinbase's entire market cap.

When Coinbase reached the upper bound of our valuation model at $375, we flagged overvaluation and recommended taking profits. Our regression analysis of trading volumes also pointed to vulnerability, with a seasonal slowdown in activity on the horizon. The call proved accurate within days.

Highlighted Galaxy as the better risk-adjusted play over Circle at its U.S. listing, noting Circle's 40x P/E debut was stretched while Galaxy offered far more reasonable valuation. Circle peaked on June 23, 2025, following the Fiserv/PayPal announcement — exactly the froth scenario we anticipated.

Called bearish on Metaplanet when the stock implied a Bitcoin price of $596,154 — an unsustainable NAV premium. The turning point came with Japan's FSA proposing regulatory changes that would reclassify crypto as financial products, identified in our June 27, 2025 report. Metaplanet peaked June 16 at 10,000 BTC holdings.

Flagged Kakaopay's stablecoin momentum as fading in our June 27, 2025 report. On August 6, issued a formal bearish report noting the U.S. GENIUS Act favoured banks over fintechs, a trend Korea would mirror. Alipay's subsequent divestment from Kakaopay confirmed the thesis. Down 39% since the June 27 call.

With Circle's short interest at 17.8% of float — nearly one in five shares sold short — and February 25 earnings approaching, we identified a crowded short squeeze setup. The stock had fallen from $299 to $62. Six-month IPO lockup expired. Options market skewed bullish. We expected hedge fund short covering to create a powerful upside catalyst.

After the 80% Circle rally, identified MicroStrategy as the next compelling setup. MSTR was trading slightly below its Bitcoin NAV ($47.5B market cap vs $51B in BTC) — historically rare. Recommended buying above the 30-day moving average at ~$136. Our short-term outlook had turned constructive, with Bitcoin targeting the $70–80k range.

Turned bullish on MicroStrategy when shares broke above $177, identifying the NAV premium expansion as the key driver. The setup: declining Bitcoin volatility had compressed the stock, but a breakout above $177 signalled renewed institutional demand and leverage capacity. The stock subsequently rallied to $400 — a level at which we flagged overvaluation and rotated to bearish.

With MicroStrategy trading at $360 and NAV premium compressing from 3x to 1.38x, flagged continued downside risk. Bitcoin volatility had collapsed — stripping away MSTR's convexity edge. Vanguard trimmed 10% of its position. Hedge funds dominated trading. Put options at $330 strike looked attractive at cheap implied vol of 56%. Identified $300 as the next major support — representing near-NAV parity, the compelling re-entry level ahead of a Fed pivot.

Highlighted TeraWulf as our "favourite Bitcoin mining stock" and "an appealing option for investors seeking exposure to the intersection of cryptocurrency mining and AI-driven opportunities." The thesis was validated on August 14, 2025 when the company announced two 10-year AI hosting contracts with Fluidstack potentially worth $12 billion.